By Kevin Mejia
Photo: NHLPAHow do we go about evaluating NHL contracts handed out on July 1st at the start of free agency? We could look at a player’s base stats like goals, assists, or points. Maybe we could look at their faceoff percent if they are a center. Defenseman? Look at their plus-minus or how many hits they have in a season. Winger? Probably just their point totals. Using just these baseline statistics seems barbaric in a sense.
Wayne Gretzky is the greatest player of all-time. No doubt about it. He has the most points of all-time. But what does that tell us about his game? He scored the most of anyone ever. But did he drive play? Obviously, he did, but we didn’t have the “fancy” analytical stats back then to show that he drove play.
What do we even mean when we say, “driving play”? Driving play is creating offense, jumping into the rush and getting shot attempts.
Starting in the 2007-2008 season, the NHL actively began collecting shot attempt data. Corsi for percentage tells us how well a player drives play. Corsi for percentage is calculated by taking the total number of shot attempts by one team and dividing it by total shot attempts by that team and their opponents (Team 1 shot attempts divided by Team 1+Team 2 shot attempts for a game).
Any corsi for percentage over 50% tells us that a player’s team shoots more often than not (drives play more effectively) when he is on the ice (a corsi for percentage under 50% tells us that a player’s team shoots less often than not when he is on the ice).
Since the 2005-2006 season, the NHL has implemented a hard cap, which means that contracts cannot be handed out without thinking of the consequences. Cap hit percentages look at how much a player contributes to the total of the cap when they initially signed their deal. This will provide good comparables as the cap is increasing every year. Finding the diamond in the rough is what we will be looking for here.
First off, we must define what we mean by a “diamond in the rough”. We will be using corsi for percentage, cap hit percentage, even strength goals and assists, and games played to measure how effective a player is when they hit the ice.
Players who have played 25% or more of the 2018-2019 season (21 games) will be looked at within this sample. One-quarter of the season is enough to make a significant impact on the season for a team.
With the 21 games in mind and being fairly liberal, having a corsi for percentage over 50 and a cap hit percent including .82 and 7.5 plus everything in between will be defined as the diamonds in the rough.
However, on the other side of the puck, we see “bad” players as ones with a corsi for percentage below 48 and a cap hit in between 8 and 14.5 (21 game minimum as well). These two groups are clearly distinguishable in the scatter plot below.
We will now go into the best and worst contracts of the 2018-2019 NHL season, organized by corsi for percentage, largest to smallest.
Games Played Even Strength Goals Even Strength Assists Even Strength Points Corsi For Percentage Cap Hit Percentage
80 21 29 50 59.6% 7.07%
After being shipped out of Detroit midseason in 2018 to the Vegas Golden Knights, he was traded right before the start of the 18-19 season to the Montreal Canadiens. This change of scenery bettered Tatar as he put up a career year with 58 points. 21 of his 25 goals were scored at even strength, making him a threat all game long. With an average annual value of $5.3 million, the Canadiens seem to have one of the best deals in the league (Tatar re-signed with Detroit before being moved).Games Played Even Strength Goals Even Strength Assists Even Strength Points Corsi For Percentage Cap Hit Percentage
82 29 16 45 59.1% 5.43%
Brendan Gallagher seems to have the best overall stats out of these players. The Montreal Canadiens homegrown talent Gallagher is on a great contract and puts up strong numbers’ year in and year out. His corsi for percentage over his career is 55.4, with his lowest season dropping to a percent of 52.2. These numbers are elite as he stays consistent. The extension he signed coming out of his entry level contract (6 years, $22.5 million) seems to be getting better, aging like a fine wine.Games Played Even Strength Goals Even Strength Assists Even Strength Points Corsi For Percentage Cap Hit Percentage
57 2 12 14 59.1% 1.83%
Jon Merrill might have the highest even strength point percent out of this list (14/15=.93) and that’s great for what was thought to be an afterthought for the New Jersey Devils. Not protected in the expansion draft, Merrill seems to have been a great pickup. The cap hit percentage will stay down as long as Merrill continues to put up low offensive totals. This defenseman might seem to be a stay at home defender, but this corsi for percentage seems to suggest he is a puck pushing defenseman who knows how to break the puck out of his zone.Games Played Even Strength Goals Even Strength Assists Even Strength Points Corsi For Percentage Cap Hit Percentage
82 14 25 39 58.3% 6%
Mr. Game 7. He’s been in the league since the 2000-2001 season with the Philadelphia Flyers. The wily veteran continues to dominate play and knows how to win the mental battle. And the stats back it up. Only getting paid $9 million over 2 seasons to lead the resurgent Hurricanes might be a good way to close out his career. This contract seems to have benefited the entire organization as a whole as he was the captain in the 18-19 season leading the Hurricanes to the postseason for the first time since the 2008-2009 season. Williams is taking a break from hockey, as he might enter retirement soon.Games Played Even Strength Goals Even Strength Assists Even Strength Points Corsi For Percentage Cap Hit Percentage
68 4 12 16 58.1% .89%
The cap hit is what does it here; only at .89 percent of the cap, Ryan Carpenter must be a valued bottom 6 forward that can give you solid minutes every night. Carpenter played for the Golden Knights as they had picked him up off of waivers during the 17-18 season. Carpenter signed a 3-year, $3 million deal with the Chicago Blackhawks this offseason.Games Played Even Strength Goals Even Strength Assists Even Strength Points Corsi For Percentage Cap Hit Percentage
65 2 14 16 56.9% 4.87%
Formerly a Boston Bruin, Colin Miller has always fit in well with the advanced analytics crowd. With a contract only at $3.875 million over 4 years, Miller seems to be a decent contributor at even strength. Miller certainly fits the role of a young puck slinging defenseman who will occasionally jump into the offensive rush. He will be tested this upcoming season as he was traded to the Buffalo Sabres.Games Played Even Strength Goals Even Strength Assists Even Strength Points Corsi For Percentage Cap Hit Percentage
82 14 10 24 55.1% 2.4%
His first season in Raleigh with the Carolina Hurricanes seems to have sparked Martinook. Jordan tied a career high in points with 25. Martinook followed the lead of Justin Williams, analytics darling, as the Hurricanes made the playoffs. If Martinook could jump into a top 6 role this upcoming season, I would love to see him play with Andrei Svechnikov. The Hurricanes will be a force to reckon with this season.Games Played Even Strength Goals Even Strength Assists Even Strength Points Corsi For Percentage Cap Hit Percentage
31 4 2 6 47% 13.41%
This contract buyout was one everyone saw coming. Only putting up 6 even strength points (10 total points) with that big of a cap hit is a disaster. Perry suffered a torn MCL before the start of last season, limiting his playing time as he started the season on February 2nd, 2019. Things could be looking up as he signed a 1 year show me deal with the Dallas Stars at $3.25 million ($1.5 million being performance bonuses). Look for Perry to rebound this year with an explosive Stars team.Games Played Even Strength Goals Even Strength Assists Even Strength Points Corsi For Percentage Cap Hit Percentage
78 8 18 26 45.6% 10.51%
The Ottawa Senators are just a bad team. Thankfully, the Sens are only paying $5.1 million of the $7.25 million that Bobby Ryan makes per season. After being acquired from the Ducks, Ryan kept going on and off of the injured reserve. With a better team around him, I wouldn’t be shocked if Ryan would get to the 48-50 corsi for percentage range. Ryan has clearly slowed down over the past years and should look to retire soon.Games Played Even Strength Goals Even Strength Assists Even Strength Points Corsi For Percentage Cap Hit Percentage
60 4 1 5 44.3% 9.63%
This one hurts (no pun intended) to write. Kesler had a back injury that shut him down for the Ducks last season and now he is sitting out the upcoming 2019-2020 season with that injury. It is questionable as to whether he will ever play hockey again. The injury (and bad team) are the reasons to blame here, not the player himself. In his heyday Kesler was an elite two-way playmaker with the Vancouver Canucks, putting up 73 points in his Selke (best two way forward) winning season.Games Played Even Strength Goals Even Strength Assists Even Strength Points Corsi For Percentage Cap Hit Percentage
79 3 10 13 42.5% 8.26%
Marc Staal seems like the kind of player who just cannot keep the puck out of his own zone. A 42.5 corsi for percentage, Staal is no defensive stalwart. His corsi for percentage has not been above 50% since the 13-14 season. This contract came into effect during the 15-16 season, two seasons after the start of his decline as a solid defenseman. Two more years (playing out his contract) in New York and Staal will likely call it a career.